#5 | Long Way Around

Red Sea tensions continue to run HOT as attacks by Houthi rebels show little signs of slowing. In fact, over the weekend Rubymar, a bulk vessel carrying ammonium phosphate, sunk in the Red Sea after being hit by a Houthi ballistic missile in mid-February.

Then yesterday, two seafarers were killed in a missile attack on cargo ship True Confidence, marking the first known fatalities as a result of Houthi strikes.

The increase in attacks have prompted more ships to avoid the Red Sea (Suez Canal) than ever before.

Daily tonnage through the Suez Canal has fallen 62% since the end of December, while transits around the Cape of Good Hope have increased 61%.

Nearly one in five bushels of the world’s grains pass through the Suez Canal each year in addition to more than 5% of its oilseeds (Brazil bean exports have always traveled to China via the Cape of Good Hope, hence the smaller percentage-share of the world’s oilseed exports utilizing the Suez - exception to this would be Northern Arc shipments that would likely utilize the Panama Canal).

Disruptions are especially impactful for the US Gulf exports as low water continues to impact Panama Canal operations.

#4 | Blend baby, blend.

Although narrowing in recent days, nearby gasoline futures remain at a substantial premium over ethanol, encouraging strong blending of the discounted biofuel.

#3 | Three New Crops

'Tis the season for acreage decisions and there is one clear winner when it comes to new crop futures performance:

#2 | Two Feedgrains

Wheat has been under pressure in recent weeks amid heavy world markets. Chicago’s recent 50-cent fall in combination with corn’s 30-cent rally has sent soft red wheat’s premium over corn to its lowest since November.

#1 | One BIG Change

The unintended consequences of low carbon fuel legislation:

For the full version of this post and more, visit NoBullAg.Substack.com.

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