Cocoa

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 4097

200 DMA = 3448

Bull Trend Trigger Point: 4292

Bear Trend Trigger Point: 4135

Cocoa futures flipped to a Neutral Trend on December 29th, however our bias is to the upside. The lack of adequate fertilizer and pesticides will keep farmers struggling to create a bumper crop. Port arrivals have been behind pace and we are anticipating another weaker production outlook in 2024. 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 4300-4350***

Pivot: 4135

Support: 4097

Coffee

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 177.32

200 DMA = 169.33

Trend Reversal Point = 188.08

With the “Golden Cross” upon us, Coffee futures flipped to a Bullish Trend on October 19. Only a close below 188.08 returns the market to a Neutral trend. Dry conditions in key growing regions continue to provide support as well as declining exchange stock inventories. 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 197.00**, 200.00***

Pivot: 187.95**

Support: 180.00-177.00***

Sugar

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 25.02

200 DMA = 24.74

Bear trade trigger = 26.04

 Sugar futures slipped back into a bearish trend on November 30 at 26.04 on record Brazilian production. However, a declining Indian 4th quarter production has provided a backstop on declining prices. Watch for a short covering rally in the coming days/weeks ahead. 

Bias: Bearish/ Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 21.95-22.00***

Pivot: 21.50

Support: 20.50-20.00**** Pocket Support

Cotton

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 81.04

200 DMA = 82.91

Trend Reversal Point = 81.63

Bear Trade Trigger = 79.10

Cotton futures slipped back into a bearish trend on the close of December 18th but since then have traded in more of a coiling sideways channel. Traders will want to use options or calculated risk strategies until we can see further evidence of a trend building. 

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/ Neutral

Resistance: 82.91*** (200 DMA)

Pivot: 81.63

Support: 79.95-79.00** Pocket Support

Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist

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