Cocoa

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 3991

200 DMA = 3383

Trend Reversal Point = 4170

Cocoa futures flipped to a bullish trend on October 17 at 3669. Only a close below 4170 will return the market to a neutral trend. The market has been relentless to the bears; it would be wise to wait for a clear signal or weigh in proper risk management if you are counter-trend trading in this market. If you will counter-trend trade this market, consider outright put options or spread spreads for exposure. 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 4250-4300***

Pivot: 4170

Support: 3991

Coffee

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 171.46

200 DMA = 168.51

Trend Reversal Point = 185.16

With the “Golden Cross” upon us, Coffee futures flipped to a Bullish Trend on October 19. Only a close below 185.16 returns the market to a Neutral trend. Traders can see the breakout of the daily pennant formation for confirmation that this bull market remains healthy. Yesterday’s breakout to 200.00 was met aggressively by hedgers and short sellers. Keep an eye on 185.16 and 180.00 as your risk management levels. 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Resistance: 200.00***

Pivot: 185.16**

Support: 180.00***

Sugar

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 26.02

200 DMA = 24.71

Bear trade trigger = 26.04

Sugar futures slipped back into a bearish trend on November 30 at 26.04 on record Brazilian production. Only a close above 25.09 will shift traders back to a neutral trend. We will have to wait for stochastic to rise from oversold territory for confirmation that a bottom is in place. Watch 22.00 as a close-in pivot point.

Bias: Bearish/ Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Resistance: 23.00**, 24.71**, 25.09**

Pivot: 22.00

Support: 21.50-21.00** Pocket Support

Cotton

Technicals (March)

50 DMA = 82.02

200 DMA = 82.95

Trend Reversal Point = 81.80

Bear Trade Trigger = 79.10

Cotton futures slipped back into a bearish trend on the close of December 18th but gave a warning sign, with no follow-through on December 19th. Traders will become frustrated with this market as we continue to see sideways Neutral action.  

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 82.95**

Pivot: 81.80

Support: 79.43**, 77.50-75.00 Pocket Support

Phillip Streible, Chief Market Strategist

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