Cotton Forming Possible Double Bottom

Cotton has made a series of lower highs and lower lows on its weekly continuation chart since its June 2018 peak. It officially moved to a bearish trend when it closed below its 50 WMA in September 2018. This trends dominant measured move has a shallow retracement with 14:4 right-handed skewing. This indicates a strong downward trend with strong momentum. Its minimum target is ~ 53.55. However, we might finally be seeing a short-term rally developing. The continuation chart shows a potential double bottom pattern forming. We just need a close above 60.25 to confirm it. Its target would be ~ 63.69.

Whats supporting this possible pattern?

--COT report shows large traders near record shorts, which is bullish

--RSI shows bullish divergence

--Chaikin Money Flow shows bullish accumulation

--Seasonality turns bullish late August into March

What are the potential obstacles?

--Monthly P @ 59.77

--50 DMA ~ 61.30

--Monthly R1 @ 62.96


I anticipate a double bottom pattern forming and reaching its upside target ~ 63.69. I can even see prices rallying a bit further before running into stiff resistance between 64.35 and 65.39. If prices do reach this resistance zone, then further analysis should be done for a possible short trade.