AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Rebounds on Insurance Rumors

Corn futures are trading 4 to 5 3/4 cents higher this morning. They closed lower for the first time in 9 sessions on Thursday, with most contracts down 1 to 5 1/4 cents. USDA reported that this year’s MFP payment will be based on single county rates multiplied by aggregate acres of the 29 listed crops affected including corn. There were rumors overnight that the White House was somehow going to change existing crop insurance contracts to enhance the payout for prevented planting. The USDA reported 442,080 MT of old crop corn sold for export during the week of May 16, with Japan purchasing 185,800 MT. That was in the range of estimates but down 48.25% from the same week a year ago. New crop sales totaled 183,879 MT. An auction of Chinese state reserves sold 3.62 MMT of 2014 corn on Thursday, which was 90.66% of the total offered.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans Up 5 cents Overnight

Soybean futures are mostly 5 to 5 3/4 cents higher after ending the Thursday session with most nearby contracts 7 to 7 1/4 cents lower. July soy meal was down $1.10/ton, with soybean oil 53 points lower. The 2019 version of MFP payments will include $14.5 billion in direct payments to producers. The rates (released at a later time) will be calculated on a county basis, based on localized damages. Payments will be multiplied by aggregate acres of the affected crops planted, and not the individual commodity as to “not distort planting decisions.” It could limit the number of PP acres claimed in order for producers to qualify to receive aid, however. The Export Sales report on Thursday showed 535,848 MT of old crop soybeans sold during the week of May 16. That was a 44.5% jump from last week and well above last year for this time. Unknown destinations purchased a total of 255,500 MT. New crop sales totaled just 5,100 MT. Meal sales totaled 300,059 MT, with soy oil at 9,088 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Markets 5 to 8 Cents Higher to Start Friday

Wheat futures are 5 to 8 cents per bushel higher this morning. The MPLS contracts were 7 to 9 1/2 cents lower yesterday, as KC was down 1 to 7 cents. CBT was down 1 to 2 1/2 cents in the front months but saw gains in the deferred contracts. All wheat export sales for the week of May 16 totaled 48,395 MT for old crop. Unshipped sales are now at 2.684 MMT with just 2 reporting weeks left in the MY. New crop sales were reported at 344,852 MT. Planalytics raised its forecast for average US winter wheat yield to 52 bushels per acre from 51.1 bpa. Russia’s Ag Ministry expected the 2019 wheat crop to total 75 MMT, below USDA’s 77 MMT projection. Private forecasters have been raising their estimates to 81-83 MMT, with ProZerno the latest at 82.3 MMT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market Firms Ahead of COF Report

Live cattle futures saw 5 to 25 cent gains in most contracts on Thursday, with Feb 2020 down a tick. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 42.5 cents higher on the day, as May expired at $135.60. The CME feeder cattle index was up $1.54 to $133.70 on May 22. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Thursday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.04 at $220.79 with Select boxes 72 cents higher @ $206.53. USDA has this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 477,000 head through Thursday. A few cash sales of $115 were reported in the South on Wednesday, with $185-186 dressed in the north. Some cash trade in the north was reported at $116 on Thursday. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected on average to show April placements up 13.5% from a year ago, with marketings in that month 6.6% higher. Export sales of beef were 24,394 MT in the week of May 16. Shipments were seen at 17,940 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs See Basis Continue to Tighten

Lean Hog futures were mixed Thursday, with the front months down 10 to 22.5 cents and deferred contracts slightly higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $84.39 on May 21. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $2.21 at $82.62 on Thursday afternoon. The national average base hog was up 98 cents on Thursday, at an average weighted price of $80.20. Estimated FI hog slaughter is 1.882 million head through Thursday. That was 37,000 head above the previous week and 53,000 above the same week last year. USDA reported weekly pork export sales of 46,279 MT during the week that ended on May 16, with 31,363 MT sold to China. Exports included 4,600 MT to China.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market Higher With Crude and Equities

Cotton futures are trading 31 to 51 points higher this morning. They posted 48 to 73 point gains in most contracts on Thursday. Crude oil was higher, and the dollar is a little weaker. Export sales of upland cotton were reported yesterday at 381,426 RB for old crop, a MY high and well above last year. India purchased 98,500 RB, with Turkey at 93,200 RB, as China canceled a net 25,127 RB. New crop upland sales were also a MY high 241,514 RB. Vietnam bought 79,000 RB, with China purchasing 19,800 RB. Shipments were at 348,597 RB, with Vietnam at 79,800 RB and 42,200 RB to China. USDA released information on the 2019 MFP payments, showing a county damage based payment rate, with the first of three payments this summer after planted acreage is reported to FSA. Payments will be based on aggregate 2019 acreage for producers of the 29 listed crops including cotton and not cotton directly. The Cotlook A index for May 22 was down 50 points from the previous day to 78.3 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.37 cents/lb, down 14 points from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353