AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures saw most contracts steady to fractionally lower on Friday. A private export sale of 115,000 MT was reported by the USDA to Egypt for 17/18 delivery. This morning's USDA Export Sales report indicated that the US sold 1.555 MMT of old crop corn during the week of 2/15. New crop sales totaled 65,532 MT. The USDA expects to see a US national average yield of 174 bpa in 18/19 in their annual Ag Outlook Forum, vs. 176.6 bpa in 17/18. That would put production at 14.39 bbu, down 214 mbu from 17/18. They also see a 18/19 ending stocks number of 2.272 bbu, 90 mbu lower than the current year. The CFTC report on Friday night showed the spec funds flipping their position to net long 18,674 contracts. That was a movement of 29,288 contracts during the week of February 20.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.66 1/4, down 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.74 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.82 1/4, down 1/4 cent

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.89 1/4, down 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed the Friday session with most contracts steady to 4 1/4 cents higher. Soy meal futures were down $1410/ton, with nearby soy oil 32 points in the green. A private export sale of 106,000 MT of soybeans was reported to unknown destinations this morning, with 40,000 MT for 17/18 and 66,000 MT for 18/19. The USDA showed a total of 109,144 MT in net reductions for old crop soybean export sales during the week of 2/15. Meal sales totaled 131,922 MT, with soy oil at 42,914 MT in sales. In the annual Ag Outlook Forum, the USDA expects the US soybean yield to average 48.5 bpa in 18/19. Analyst's with Brazilian firm AgroConsult now expect to see the country's production near 117.5 MMT, up 3.4 MMT from their previous estimate. AgRural estimates that the crop is 25% complete, down from the average of 27% and last year’s 36%.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.36 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.47 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.56, up 3 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.40 1/4, up 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $375.50, down $1.40,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.36, up $0.32

Wheat

Wheat futures settled as much as a penny higher in CBT, with MPLS and KC wheat down 1 to 2 1/4 cents. All wheat export sales totaled 328,859 MT during the week that ended Feb 15. That was a 5.7% increase over the previous week but down 27.1% from the same time last year. New crop sales were tallied at 53,600 MT. Sales of 150,000 MT were reported to the Philippines. The USDA released a projection of 47.4 bpa for the US national yield, up from 46.3 bpa last year. The 18/19 carry out is expected to be trimmed 78 mbu from 17/18 to 931 mbu. The Friday Commitment of Traders report showed the big spec funds adding to their short Chicago SRW positions by 10,208 contracts in the week ending February 20. They were net short 67,039 contracts at that time.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.52 1/4, up 1 cent,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.69, down 1 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.00 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures ended Friday with mixed trade, as nearby Feb was 35 cents lower. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 42.5 cents higher in the front months and lower in the back months on Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was down 42 cents on February 22 at $147.63. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 3 cents at $218.37, with Select boxes 76 cents higher at $212.82. Estimated weekly FI cattle slaughter is at 572,000 head through Saturday, 2,000 head fewer than the same week last year. Most cash trade has been reported at $128-$128.50 so far this week. Export sales for beef dropped to a MY low of 9,346 MT during the week of 2/15. Friday afternoon’s COF report showed placements of 2.068 million head during January, up 4.39% over Jan 2017 and above most estimates. Jan marketings were 6.11% larger at 1.858 million head. February 1 cattle on feed were reported at 11.63 million head, up 7.86%.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $128.000, down $0.350,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $124.850, down $0.525,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $116.800, unch,

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.000, unch,

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $148.500, up $0.425

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.375, up $0.250

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures finished the day with most contracts slightly higher. The CME Lean Hog Index on February 21 was $70.17, down 61 cents from the previous day. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 78 cents higher at $79.48 in the Friday PM report, with the ham the only cut reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was down 93 cents at $62.63. The USDA estimated week to date FI hog slaughter at 2,373,000 through Saturday. That is down 9,000 head from the previous week but 107,000 head more than the same time last year. Export sales of pork totaled a MY high of 40,350 MT during the week of Feb 15, up 84% from the same time last year.

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $71.375, up $0.100,

May 18 Hogs closed at $77.600, up $0.175

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $83.025, up $0.075

Cotton

Cotton futures were mostly 91 to 187 points in the green on Friday, after seeing a 7.57% increase since last week. Export sales of old crop Upland cotton were reported at 399,123 RB for the week of February 15. New crop sales were shown at 177,217 RB. Shipments of cotton were reported at 333,531 RB, above last week but still 2.08% lower than the same time a year ago. Cotton yield is expected to drop to 828 lbs/acre during 2018/19 according to the USDA's Ag Outlook Forum. The lower yield is expected to more than offset the more acreage to drop production 1.76 million bales to 19.5 million bales. The USDA Adjusted World Price or AWP was updated to 69.69 cents/lb on Thursday, 54 points higher than the previous week. The Cotlook A index was up 150 points from the previous day on February 22 at 90.20 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 81.450, up 91 points,

May 18 Cotton closed at 81.340, up 187 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 82.070, up 166 points


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